The April 4, 2022, IPCC Report indicates that “ In the scenarios (IPCC) assessed, limiting warming to around 1.5°C (2.7°F) requires global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest, and be reduced by 43% by 2030; at the same time, methane would also need to be reduced by about a third.
The analysis of Job One for Humanity.org is even more demanding of reductions in the use of fossil fuels because they report that the IPCC report is 20% to 40% underestimated because of political and defective analytical reasons.
They write:
“If our world governments do not immediately execute a mass mobilization of the necessary resources to come close to reducing global fossil fuel use by 75% by 2025, half of humanity will be dead by mid-century and if we miss those targets by too much, humanity faces total extinction early in the second half of the 21st century or sooner.”
The emission of CO2 is correlated with the rise in both the amount of atmospheric CO2 and global temperature, as is shown in the diagram below.
The reason that 1.50 C and 425-450 ppm CO2 is that they are the approximate point of no return in climate heating and precede the first major tipping point of multiple radical changes in Earth ecology. [the following material on tipping points is from Job One for Humanities web site: www.joboneforhumanity.org.]
Tipping Points are points where some process or new stimulus causes a sudden and significant change in the status of the ongoing process or system, causing it to jump from one state to a new, significantly different state. This sudden change is not only significant; it is often extreme! Before a tipping point is reached, there is another key milestone in the process. It is the point of irreversible process momentum toward that tipping point, or what is commonly known as the point of no return.
When global heating tipping points are crossed, one or more of them can trigger processes leading to:
- sudden large-scale catastrophes in climate, human, and biological systems,
- irreversible global warming,
- irreversible climate destabilization,
and/or extinction-level climate destabilization.
There are just four critical atmospheric carbon-based global warming accelerating tipping points and deadlines to never forget. Atmospheric carbon (C02) is measured in parts per million (ppm.)
Of these four tipping points, 2025 is the most important. Once we cross the 2025 tipping point, any realistic or practical control of our global warming future to prevent mass extinction is all but over for centuries to thousands of years. If we pass the following four critical deadlines and tipping points, not only will we experience mass human, animal, and biological extinction, we also will experience widespread economic, social, and political chaos within our lifetimes!
1. the 2025 carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point (the first extinction process initiating triggering level for half of humanity by mid-century)
2. the 2042-2067 or earlier, carbon 500 ppm extinction-accelerating tipping point (this begins the runaway global ice melt)
3. the 2063-2072 or earlier, carbon 600 ppm total human extinction tipping point, (massive methane releases from the permafrost and the oceans create this tipping point level and the beginning of the total human extinction process,) and
4. the post-2072, the carbon 750 ppm runaway global warming temperature, and total biological life tipping point level.)
The current use of 1.50 C and 425 ppm, rather than 20 C goals of the Paris accords, is that atmospheric carbon emissions have increased substantially above previous predictions.
Source of CO2 from Fossil Fuels
The primary source of CO2 in the atmosphere is the energy derived from fossil fuels and traditional biomass. More than half of all the fossil fuel emissions ever emitted have been released in the past quarter century. Emissions have increased by four times during my lifetime and have doubled in the past quarter century.
Predictions of fossil fuel consumption by BP starting in 2022.
As of 4.1.2022, we are still not making anything even close to the required global fossil fuel reductions to meet or come even close to the 2025 global fossil fuel 75% reduction target. This reduction failure means we will not be able to avoid major global temperature increases, horrendous climate calamities, and a mass extinction event far sooner than imagined.
We call it our last chance tipping point because it truly is our last window of opportunity to keep from going over the first critical carbon 425 to 450 tipping point. Once we go over this tipping point, our average global temperature will inevitably rise well above 2°C, far faster than ever before in geological time. (Geological time is measured in hundreds of thousands to millions of years.)
Once we go over the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point and hit the 2.2°-2.7° Celsius average global temperature increase level, the total heat-producing momentum of all of the previous carbon that we have ever put into the atmosphere, along with the other factors previously mentioned (in a, b and c above,) will once again quickly and inevitably push our global average global temperature even higher!
This rising temperature factor means that for all intents and purposes, once we go over the carbon 425-450 ppm tipping point and trigger its climate and human system momentum and inertia factors, we are locked into continually increasing temperatures for as much as the next 30-50 years!
- The carbon 425-450 tipping point level. (This tipping point initiates a significant acceleration of the previously initiated runaway process for triggering more and more global warming tipping points at faster and faster rates. This initial triggering of the runaway tipping point process began when we went over the carbon 386 ppm tipping point about 2015.)
