An Alert to the Major Existential Crises of Humankind!
Every thinking person should have been shocked by the the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that was issued last April. It said that global greenhouse gas emissions would need to peak before 2025, at the latest, and be reduced by 43% by 2030 if global warming was to remain below 1.5o C (2.7o F). Atmospheric methane would also need to be reduced by about a third. The non-profit environmental organization, Job One for Humanity.org, indicated several reasons that the IPCC report underestimated the necessary reductions by 20-40%. If so, the major industrial nations will have to reduce their use of fossil fuel by 75% by 2025 and to net zero by 2035 to prevent runaway global heating.
The use of the figure of 1.5o C temperature increase over pre-industrial measurements is important because, if exceeded, major radical changes in the Earth’s ecology will occur. One Job for Humanity (OJfH), uses a different measurement of a tipping point–425-450 ppm of atmospheric carbon dioxide–at which unstoppable global heating will occur. Once the tipping point of 1.5o C or 450 ppm is exceeded, any realistic or practical control of future global warming to prevent mass extinctions is impossible. Yet even greater increases in concentration beyond 450 ppm CO2, reinforced by feedback from the release of methane, will result in even more heating of the atmosphere. The warnings of the IPCC and OJfH are similar in that the timing and necessity of drastic reductions in use of fossil fuels must occur immediately to prevent runaway additions of CO2. One Job for Humanity believes that the death of half of humanity by mid-century is unavoidable, although complete extinction is highly improbable.
Six decades of valid scientific warnings have been ignored and global heating has grown exponentially. In their projections of the consequences of passing the 425-450 ppm tipping point, Job One for Humanity sees additional, major tipping points in mid-21st century when at 500 ppm, global ice-melt will become runaway. With even greater concentrations of atmospheric carbon, methane, and nitrous acid, more humans, as well as other animals and plant life will die before the end of the century.
Most CO2 in the atmosphere is derived from the burning of fossil fuels. Emissions have grown exponentially about 60% in the last 25 years–more than half of all the emissions since the beginning of the industrial revolution. During my 91-year lifetime, emissions have increased about 12 times or 400%. In 2022, the production of fossil fuels and the emissions of CO2 are likely to increase to their highest levels, ever, as economies recover from the decline during the Covid pandemic.
The level of future production and consumption of fossil fuels is uncertain. Such events as the impact of lowered demand during the Covid pandemic and of the disruptions caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine make even short term projections difficult. Nevertheless,The Guardian newspaper (May 11, 2022) made an extensive survey of the fossil fuel production plans of all major fossil fuel companies. It indicated that within the next seven years fossil fuel industries have plans for gigantic oil and gas projects–what the The Guardian calls “carbon bombs”–that would result in a billion tonnes of CO2 emissions.Over their lifetimes those emissions would equal 18 years of current emissions. Global emissions must remain below 500 GtCO2 to have a 50% chance of preventing 1.5o C of global warming. However, these ongoing and scheduled projects would produce 646 GtCO2; thus vastly exceed the 1.50 C target.
The twelve largest oil companies plan to spend $103 million a day until 2030 in producing fuels from new fields. “This means that the major fossil fuel producing companies have committed themselves to exceed the global carbon budget in the next 7 years.” These huge oil and gas corporations will also receive national subsidies. (At present, the US subsidizes fossil fuels about $2000 per capita each year.)
National pledges to reduce CO2 emissions since the Paris Climate Conference of 2015 are far from being met. Each delay in meeting the 1.5o C goal makes it increasingly unlikely that it can be attained. Over forty years ago, scientists both at EXON and in the Carter administration recognized the direct connection between the burning of fossil fuels and the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. Between then and the 6th IPCC report of last April, additional scientific studies, numerous national and international meetings, as well as a constant stream of United Nations’ reports, conferences, agreements, and national pledges have been made. In the meantime, atmospheric carbon has increased from 317 ppm to 421.71 ppm. (June 14, 2022)
The world is far from meeting the goals to reduce CO2 set by the IPCC. National pledges have not been met. Only through extreme governmental actions by all of major developed and developing nations can they be met. In the US, those actions have been stalled or rejected in Congress. Fossil fuel subsidies continue to be offered by the US and other governments. Major banks still find fossil fuel industries to be good investments. India and China are building more coal-fired energy plants. Russia is financing its invasion of Ukraine by selling natural gas and oil. OPEC tries to control oil prices by setting production quotas to maintain long term profits.
More importantly, most nations and capitalistic organizations desire economic growth to provide ever increasing goods and services, all of which depend upon energy. Pledges to reduce CO2 emissions are countered by demands for cheap gas and economic growth. Even the transition to more efficient electrical, industrial, heating, and transportation systems needs massive amounts of fossil fuel energy for construction and maintenance. Facilities to capture solar and wind power and to sequester CO2 depend on the use of fossil fuels. Technological solutions are too little and too late. The “green revolution” in agriculture that has staved off massive hunger depends on fossil fuels. Individuals want both low gas prices and goods from all over the world. But as the population of the world still continues to grow by 80 to 90 million people each year, total demand will increase, even as per capita consumption of goods and services will decrease.
Within this decade, the real world will face a runaway tipping point. Possibly it has already. The human world is in a predicament in which “ifs”, “hopes”, and “pledges” cannot produce solutions in a timely way. Only an unlikely radical, rapid degrowth in consumption of fossil fuels can reverse the path of global climate heating. And even if climate heating might be avoided, an Earth of eight billion humans can not be supported by known natural resources.
The Earth’s ecology is unraveling rapidly. The question is not how do we stop it. Rather we should be asking ourselves how can you and I face the oncoming predicament in a thoughtful, humane way as modern civilization is shaken to its core.