A Short Explanation of the
Global Environmental Crises
I have assembled a series of diagrams to illustrate the environmental crises facing humanity today. The background to the story presented here is the development of the modern world in the past 100-200 years. Modern prosperity, based on growth and progress, is largely attributable to technology that depends on scientific discoveries and, more particularly, on energy derived from fossil fuels.
First, I present the large-scale evidence associated with the current crises: (a.) the over consumption of natural resources as is shown by diagrams from the Global Footprint Network, and (b.) by the destruction of the Earth’s natural ecological systems as studied by the Stockholm Resilience Group.
Next, I focus on Global Warming because it is an immediate threat to the lives of billions of people within the lifetime of many still alive. In particular, I hone-in on the scientific models of global warming and their possible inaccuracies.
Lastly, I indicate the failure of national governments, large corporations, financial institutions, and society, in general, to act in a significant way in time to slow the two major problems I first noted. The result is a predicament without solutions for maintaining the modern civilization of growth and progress, which we have experienced throughout most of our lifetimes.
Without solutions to the major environmental crises and their impact on humanity, modern civilization seems headed for ever larger disasters. The science largely seems correct, and the scientific models seem adequate, even as the most used ones of the IPCC are politically chosen. Most importantly, governments, capitalists, and society in general ignore the truth of the scientific models when it does not agree with their long-established goals of growth and progress. Furthermore, the time to bring accord between scientific projections and societal goals (inertia) is too short to avoid the predicament within which we find ourselves.
For more detailed comments based on the following and similar diagrams, go to: New Posts on alurquhart.com
The Condition of the Earth’s ecology.
Two diagrams–Ecological Footprint and Safe Earth Operating Systems—show the deterioration of the Earth’s ecological systems in recent times. Underlying these changes are growth in population, alterations in use of land , and consumption of fossil fuels.
The Global Ecological Footprint is dominated by greenhouse gas emissions, population growth, and land use changes.
Global Footprint Network
The footprint of consumption
These two diagrams show that, globally, humans are consuming more ‘natural resources’ than are being produced by nature. Since 1970, the Earth’s biological resources have been in deficit. All categories of consumption have increased, carbon based products including CO2 and Methane especially. If every human consumed like we Americans, seven Earths would be needed to have a stable footprint.
Land use change and Population growth.
Our World in Data
Note that both crop land and grazing land have grown exponentially in recent times. In my lifetime population has grown from 2+ billion to over 8 billion. Population growth and land use changes have resulted in increased demands for goods and services, which are produced primarily by the consumption of fossil fuels. In the process of extracting and burning fossil fuels, greenhouse gases are released.
In these two graphs, the consumption of all forms of energy and associated emission of CO2, especially since 1850 has dramatically increased. Renewable energy, although increasing in the last 2 decades, is still a very minor source of the total energy consumed. The three major greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, and N20) all are growing exponentially.
(Source: IEA)
As the atmospheric greenhouse gases increase, atmospheric temperature increase. Temperature can be measured in ice cores, and more recently directly from air samples taken on Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii. The incoming solar heat has fluctuated seasonally in an regular pattern. However, global temperatures have increased more rapidly even than the increasing rate of CO2.
(Source: K. von Schuckmann et al.: Heat stored in the Earth system Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2013–2041, 2020)
Most heat is stored in the oceans, but its effects are less well known than heat in the atmosphere. This heat affects ocean currents, ocean acidity, glacial melt, and atmospheric warming. When heat energy in the oceans will be release in greater amounts is, as yet, unknown.
Many Earth systems are beyond safe operating levels.
Azote for Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University. Based on Richardson et al. 2023
Not only are CO2 emissions increasing, but the biospheric integrity, land-systems, freshwater uses, the flow or phosphorus and nitrogen, the release of novel items such as plastics and new chemicals are beyond safe operation in the Earth’s ecological systems. Many of these changes are also related to use of fossil fuels such as nitrogen applied to agricultural land, discharges into fresh and sea water, vegetation clearance and use of land, making plastics, etc. However, disastrous these changes may be, current concerns with global warming dominate environmental discussions.
Paris Accords of IPCC in 2015
Limiting use of energy as a way to reduce global warming has been a concern for decades. Its most public expression came with the Paris Agreement of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report of 2015. It set the year, 2100, as the goal to reach Zero Emissions and 2030 as the goal to reach 1.50 C warming. The Paris Agrement has not resulted in a decrease in emission of CO2.
Goals
The IPCC goals limited emissions of greenhouse gases to 1.50C by 2050 and to 2.00C by the year 2100 with the belief that GHG emissions could be stabilized at these levels. The goals were compared to then current policy projections, pledges made by national governments, and the reduction in carbon emissions needed to reach the established goals. The next chart shows the gaps between the goals and the current policies and pledges in 2030.
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(Source: IPCC report)
When projected to 2050 and 2100, the immensity of the task of reduction of GHG is apparent.
Projections of growth in relationship to different models.
(Next 3 diagrams are from Global warming in the pipeline James E. Hansen, Makiko Sato, Leon Simons, Larissa S. Nazarenko, Karina vonSchuckmann, Norman G. Loeb, Matthew B. Osman, Pushker Kharecha, Qinjian Jin, George Tselioudis, Andrew Lacis, Reto Ruedy, Gary Russell, Junji Cao, Jing Li). (2023)
If aerosols (particulates in the air) are reduced, climate warming will accelerate.
(Global Warming in the Pipeline; Hansen et al.)
Projections of Global warming will accelerate if the accepted value for ECS (climate sensitivity) that is used in the IPCC reports (2.50 C to3.50C) is too small. Hansen, et al. indicate that 3.50 C or 40 C values of ECS may be more accurate.) Climate sensitivity is assumed that, in the long run, the heat of the Earth is in equilibrium when the heat coming to the Earth from the sun equals the heat leaving the Earth. Equilibrium slowly changes as the orbit of the Earth around the sun changes, as ice sheets grow and retreat, as land area and cover change, as clouds and water increase or decline, etc. The diagram below shows that as global forcing increases over the past 400,000 years so did the temperatures measured in water isotopes in Antarctic ice. This represents over 400,000 years of long-term equilibrium of the Earth. Since 1750,however, global forcing by GHG has greatly exceeded the near equilibrium. The last 270 years are the subject of climate change. The importance of the level of climate sensitivity is in knowing how climate deviates from long range equilibrium and how global temperatures respond to levels of greenhouse gases (GHG).
(In the diagram, 40C was the assumed metric of climate sensitivity since 1750.) Global warming in the pipeline James E. Hansen,et alia.
(Global Warming in the Pipeline; Hansen et al.)
Tipping Points
The IPCC models do not include Tipping Points or events that radically and irreversibly change the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. They need to be considered in predicting changes in ecological systems.
Source: Job One for Humanity) (Source: Job One for Humanity)
Climageddon is a term used by Job One for Humanity for the onset of climate disasters.
Combining a probable higher climate sensitivity rate and changes that accompany tipping points, the consensus model most used by the IPCC underestimates global climate heating.
Source: Job One for Humanity)
As global warming increases (shown in red rectangle), current changes will result in passing tipping points (shown in lavender rectangle). The interaction of natural tipping points will result in changes in cultural and societal tipping points (shown in green rectangle).
(Source: Job One for Humanity)
Remediation Attempts
Changes in energy needed to reach Net Zero Growth by 2050
As we ‘stay the economic and political course’ the chances of reducing global heating are greatly reduced. With the national pledges to reduce global warming, which are not being met, the IPCC goals will not be possible.
Technological Solutions
The International Energy Association illustrates that technological processes dealing with Carbon reduction that are needed to reach IPCC goals. They, like many other groups that are concerned with meeting the IPCC goals, rely almost exclusively on immediately adopting technologies in meeting the goals. Only a very small amount of the changes are to be attributable to behavioral changes. Almost nothing is said about changing consumption patterns, national actions, nor financial, or business procedures.
The dramatic reductions in energy use that are necessary to reach the IPCC goals are shown in the following two diagrams. Reductions are needed across the whole of he world economy.
Fossil fuel use by scenario, 2020, 2030 and 2050
IEA,, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/fossil-fuel-use-by-scenario-2020-2030-and-2050, IEA. Licence: CC BY 4.0
Projections of fossil fuel production to reach net zero emissions are shown below.
The projections shown above must be realized if the IPCC goals are to be reached. Nevertheless, the major gas and oil producing corporations are investing in new gas and oil fields. National governments and major financial institutions are subsidizing or giving credit for increased production. Fossil fuel corporations have proposed expansion that would exceed the goals for emission proposed by the IPCC.
Proposed new oil and gas productions and government subsidies
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The economy continues to grow. More goods and services are desired. The GDP is seen as good when it grows even at the expense of the natural world. Banks and corporation want to increase their debt to pay for their expansion.
Published by Statistica Aaron O’Neill,Dec 7, 2023
Draw your own conclusions based on humanity’s possibility to change course in the use of fossil fuels in its efforts to maintain modern civilization.
For more detailed comments go to: New Posts on alurquhart.com